Hoops

Why the Lakers will win.

Hey Jules,
You could well be right. I agree Kobe is a clutch performer and very hard to slow down. I also have no doubt that the Lakers are a better overall team than Atlanta.

But I would still be interested to see a fired up, nothing to lose Atlanta and the Lakers match up in 7 games though.

Just like the Celtics, the Lakers try to be patient and pass the ball, looking for the open guy. But it isn't always easy when you are being pressured.

Horford, Josh Smith and Joe Johnson are all gun players and they can really put a lot of pressure on with their length and athleticism.

The way that series was called, you had to get absolutely poleaxed to get a foul (on both sides, not saying the Celtics got a raw deal). To me, that makes life tough on a guy like Kobe. He is a great player and athlete, but he is a finesse player, not a grind it out guy. He would find it difficult to make shots when he is getting bumped and hacked all the time.

I see the rest of the Lakers as being the same as Kobe: highly skilled, finesse players. They just aren't built to cope with big, physical teams.

That is why I feel that the Lakers, like Boston, could well have struggled against the Hawks under the same circumstances.

Anyway, I've got my theory and you've got yours. You have a fair argument. The offensive execution of the Lakers is pretty good and could well be the difference in putting the Hawks away.

Sadly, we'll never really know. Maybe I'll get the next NBA Live and put the two teams through their paces! See what happens!

Hey anonymous, nice to see you have the conviction to use a name to post under.

Try reading my post again. I DID NOT SAY the Spurs were not a formidable test. Nothing like it. My focus was on Quagmire's assertion that the Celtics had it easy in the East.

I also didn't say Kobe wouldn't get good numbers against the Celtics. He will. If you doubt my respect for Kobe the BASKETBALL player you might also want to check what I wrote in the message before last:

"Kobe is the BEST all around player on the court, but how much can the SCORING abilities of Allen and Pierce OFFSET his numbers?"

What I am saying is that the Celtics will do what they can to make Kobe a jump shooter and to close down his passing options. THIS WILL NOT BE EASY. Hell, they may fail in their attempts to limit Kobe's influence. But they were effective with these tactics against Lebron in Cleveland.

So you think Atlanta would get creamed by the Lakers do you? Now you can say what you want but you have just proven to me that you did not watch more than 5 mins of the Celtics-Hawks series. If you had, you would have seen a ferociously athletic team that was crashing the boards and playing out of their skins on their home court.

The Lakers would not match up well against a team like that, especially if the referees called a physical game like they did througout the Celtics-Hawks series.

If the Hawks improve their bench and get good play from Bibby next year, watch them win 50 games.

I also don't think you watched much of the Cavs in the playoffs. Their defence is exceptional. The thing that stops them is a lack of reliable scorers. Put a Parker or Ginobili type on their roster and they would be very tough to stop.

I never said Fisher was slow either. He is a very savvy player who can kill the Celtics with his threes and smart play. What I said was that Rondo is capable of containing him and blowing by him on the offensive end. Whether this happens or not will, IMO, come down to how smart Rondo plays during the series.

You say Odom is versatile and he is, but is there anything he does on a basketball court Garnett doesn't do better? I'll give him ball handling, thats about it.

You also say I am just looking at individual matchups. Let me point you to some examples of what I said earlier:

"Both teams play excellent team ball and have a number of stars."

"A critical thing for the Lakers will be getting open looks for their jump shooters... The Celtics cheat off their man a lot to clog the paint, but have also done a good job of recovering and running down shooters this year. So much so that they had the best 3pt defensive FG% in the league... But how good is the Lakers passing game? Will they be able to get players open in a way that other teams have failed to this year?"

"That's why I will be very interested to see how well the Lakers adjust to the Celtics defence and if their passing game is good enough to get guys open consistently. The answer to that question will have a big bearing on the series."

So actually, I emphasised the team offence of the Lakers and the team defence of the Celtics.

I have no doubt the Lakers offence is better than the Celtics. But how much? Likewise, how much better is Boston's defence than the Lakers?

I think the ability of the Lakers to create open shots against Boston's defence will have a huge impact on how this series goes.

So did you read this far? Or am I going to see another knee jerk response from someone who didn't bother to read what I actually said?

Hey Quagmire,
Don't be bitter, I'm sorry your Jazz lost to the Lakers too!

The line you've taken is one most of those backing the Lakers have gone for: the form of the Lakers has been much better against better teams than the Celtics have faced.

Could be right, but it also could be that many of the people saying this have not really watched the Celtics playoff games this year.

I think you might be surprised at how well their opponents played if you watched the games.

I would LOVE to see a Lakers-Hawks series because I think the Hawks present even more of a matchup nightmare for the Lakers than they did for the Celtics!

At least the Celtics could hold their own around the basket. I don't see Gasol and his marshmallow friends coping with the energy, athleticism and aggression of Horford and Josh Smith. Without Garnett, Smith would have destroyed the Celtics forwards.

Cleveland aren't pretty to watch, but they played the most effective defence the Celtics have seen this year. Their help defence completely shut down Allen and made life very difficult for Pierce and Garnett at times. I think they would have beaten Detroit again this year if they had played them.

Although Kobe is better than Lebron because he has a much better jump shot, he still struggles a lot more if you are able to stop him from getting to the basket and drawing fouls as often. Look for the Celtics to try and do a similar thing to him as they did to Lebron.

Now of course, it will be harder against the Lakers because they have a lot more range shooters who you have to honour than Cleveland. But is their defence going to slow the Celtics as much? Will they get as many second shots as the Cavs got? I think the answer to both those questions is no.

You seem to write off Detroit pretty fast as well, but they are still a very good team. Wallace would have a much easier time against Gasol than he did against KG. Garnett completely dominated Sheed like very few players in the NBA can. Its not because Sheed "didn't show up" - he was simply overmatched.

I think Chauncey was affected at times by his hamstring, but he was still pretty effective during the series, especially at clutch moments. If you saw the series, he was far from hobbled. Fisher is much slower than Rondo and I think Chauncey would do well against him too.

Another factor was Pierce dominating Prince. Would Odom or Radmanovic dominate Prince to the same degree?

Boston had KG, Perk and PJ to cover Sheed, Dice and Maxiell. The Lakers only have Gasol. How would they have kept Detroit off the offensive glass?

So to answer your question: yes, I think the Lakers could well have gone to 7 games against all of the teams the Celtics played. If you had seen all the games like I have, you would know.

On the other side of the equation, it is much more difficult for me to comment, because I have only seen a couple of the Western Conference games. But the only team out west that plays defence to the same level as Cleveland and Detroit is the Spurs. I'm not sure the Lakers offence has really been tested as much during the playoffs.

That's why I will be very interested to see how well the Lakers adjust to the Celtics defence and if their passing game is good enough to get guys open consistently. The answer to that question will have a big bearing on the series. I don't know the answer to that yet and I don't think too many others do either.

What I do think, is that this finals series has a good chance of being an absolute classic. It should be much more offensive than the grind it out games the Celtics played in the east, and that will make it much prettier to watch.

So don't worry, these Celtics have a good shot of beating Kobe "I threw my franchise and team-mates under the bus" Bryant! The evil one has not triumphed yet!

Good luck to you Beantown, i hope for your sake the Celts step up and make it happen.

But to quote the great Jim Carey-
"Fiction can be fun!"

Lets take a look at the recent history...

Celts defeated hawks in 7, cavs in 7, pistons in 6.

Hawks should never have got that close, but we'll put it down to Celts finding their playoff groove.

Cavs were a one man show. It took 7 games and a career game from the truth to escape that one.

Then you play the pistons with their best player hobbled and their heart not beating- seriously, what was the deal with Rasheed? Is he just over it or something?

Now how bout the Lakers.
Swept Denver.
4/2 over the jazz including a tough road close-out game.
4/1 over the spurs, again getting it done on the road also.

Do you think the Lakers would of gone to 7 games with the Hawks? the cavs? Get real.
Do you think they would of dropped a home game to an injured pistons?

Conversely do you think the celts would still be playing if they faced the two reigning west conf finalists from last year in their playoff run?
What would the odds be on them going 8-3 against those same teams?

Lakers will win.

And that sucks coz i hate that Kobe tool.

Sam Cassell needs to walk in first game, and just snap Kobe's leg right there on center court. Retire straight after. Maybe do some jail time but he would never have to buy a drink in boston ever again.

(and i bet there is a girl and her family in Denver that would be happy to put him up any time he wants...)

I don't know why some people act so confident in predicting this series. Both teams play excellent team ball and have a number of stars. Both teams are newly formed this season and the regular season games can't give us the whole picture because Gasol was not playing. I really think it could go either way.

I agree with Quagmire's comment that Perkins will be key. He has played excellent defence all through the playoffs and has shown he can finish well when left open. His offensive struggles were against the Hawks and Cavs who have much longer, better athletes at forward than the Lakers. The Celtics need to do a good job of finding him when the Lakers double off him.

A critical thing for the Lakers will be getting open looks for their jump shooters like Radman, Fisher, Vujajic, etc. The Celtics cheat off their man a lot to clog the paint, but have also done a good job of recovering and running down shooters this year. So much so that they had the best 3pt defensive FG% in the league. But how good is the Lakers passing game? Will they be able to get players open in a way that other teams have failed to this year?

This series is KG's chance to shine. Gasol is pretty much forced to match up on Perkins and hence Odom will probably match up on KG most of the time. I have seen nothing that suggests to me that Odom can match KG on either end of the floor. The Celtics embarrassed him in Boston earlier this year. So I will be surprised if Odom is able to hurt the Celtics a lot. Garnett needs to make a statement about his place in the NBA pantheon in this series. Is he Bill Russell great or just a Ewing or Malone who couldn't get it done when it mattered most?

Kobe is the best all around player on the court, but how much can the scoring abilities of Allen and Pierce offset his numnbers? Allen and Pierce have always played well against the Lakers. Earlier this season Kobe and Allen matched up pretty well, with Ray mostly getting all the shots he wanted against Kobe's defence. How much has LA's team defence improved since November and the addition of Gasol? Has Allen left his shooting slump behind or is his body done?

The Rondo-Fisher match-up will be very interesting. I have no doubt that long term Rondo will be a much better player that Fisher. But what about this series? Rondo has the speed to really hurt Fisher, but will he play smart? Or will Rondo gamble off Fisher too often and give him open threes? The way I see it, Fisher can really hurt the Celtics. But only if Rondo allows him to. Doc needs to stay on the kid's case and make sure he understands how much his defensive lapses could cost the Celtics.

I think the Celtics bench is going to be really happy because for the first time since Atlanta they are not overmatched. The Celtics backup PGs Cassell and House have really struggled because of the ball pressure of faster guards. I think they will have an easier time against the Lakers. Powe and Big Baby have nothing to fear from Turiaf and will love finally being able to see the basket again after being overmatched by the big/ athletic frontlines of Atlanta, Cleveland and Detroit.

Basically Posey and PJ Brown have been about the only two guys who have played with any consistency off the bench for the Celtics the entire playoffs. With the Lakers as their opponent, the Celtics may actually get their best all around bench performance of the playoffs! For me, the big x-factor here is the lack of experience on both benches, but most particularly the Celtics bench. Will be interesting to see which players seize the day!

To sum up: as a Celtics fan I am pretty confident they have the team to win it. But it could easily go the Lakers way as well. I don't think anyone can really be certain of who will win - except maybe David Stern and the refs ;-) LOL

Perhaps there is a balance between the two. I still lean towards the team with the strongest weakest link (does that make any sense at all???) will prevail.

Identify the two teams biggest weakness, look at the other teams ability to exploit it, compare, place your bet.

Bulls v Jazz 96 (?)

Jazz Weakness- The 5 postion, no scoring option.
Bulls weakness- The 4 position, Rodman trying to score.

Now, which team exploited it better?
Bulls left Ostertag and russell alone countless times to cheat on D and harrass Malone in the post. The most critical play was a Pip steal when he left his man completely.
Jazz? How often did they double or cheat on D to defend Pip and Jordan and force Rodman to score? Can't remember seeing it once. I do remember seeing them leave Kerr alone, didn't go so well...

Bulls win.

Now for the Lakers Celtics;
Celtic Weakness- PG and C
Lakers weakness- SF.

Who can exploit it best?
Lakers will sag off both rondo and Perk, putting more pressure on the big three and forcing low percentage shots and turnovers. Rondo drives will be real tough against Gasol/Odom shot blocking, Perk may be able to score- so that is why i think he is critical.

Could the Lakers actually win a championship with Radmanamanamnavic and Luke Waltion playing SF? Sure, they can both shoot if left open. Simple as that, cheat and sag off to help on Kobe, Gasol or Odom, you get treyed by the laker support cast.

Weakest link theory.

Lakers win.

I think KG's game is really setting himself in the high post and using his great passing skills to set up others, and being a bail-out jump shooter if all else fails. He will be consistant without being brilliant.

He has a similar game to Duncan in that he facilitates so much of what Boston can do, yet it is the Parker and Gino's that must finish in the clutch. (unless they need a trey to force OT- respect for Poo on that one)

For Boston that means running the offence through KG most of the game, then freeing up Pierce for the clutch shot with his spin move. Or Ray for the shot.


In terms of regular game play- perkins will be an issue because he will need to finish the KG feed down low when he's left alone. Failure to finish will mean the Lakers can really put the squeeze on defensively.

Hereschenes- I hope your getting what i'm saying, KG is a better player than i have previously given him credit for, but it is always the weakest link that determines the champions...

If i was to give Boston any hope at all, it would be because of two things,

1/ Paul Pierce has been fantastic defending the top players and attacking the rim with his now surely patented spin move. He will get the job on Kobe, the series may hinge on it.

2/ Ray Allen hates Kobe and usually steps up when playing him.

I would just like to point out i am a jazz / knicks fan for over 15 years. I HATE the lakers and this thread is not a fan blowing smoke up their teams ass.

Dicko- glad you liked it mate. I think what makes Phil's coaching even more impressive was that he was able to predict a fellow master in Pop-a-zitch.

Often said- its not what you win, its who you beat.

Also- read his book about that one season with Shaq, Malone, Kobe, and Payton. Awesome stuff, get your hands on it if you can.

Apparently David Cooper, Adelaide's new recruit for 2004/05 will be interviewed on KG and Cornesy this afternoon. If you're interested, tune in!