Hoops

36ers chances of winning championship?

To start the season my top 4 were Perth, Cairns, Melbourne (cairns by the skin of their teeth in the head to head) and Wollongong.

Whilst Wollongong won't make it I think Melbourne are great when they are clicking and terrible when they aren't. Cairns are an amazing team to watch when they are winning the rebounding count and Trigger will offer so much (remember Mitch Young is picking up a heap of experience) and you can't underestimate how valuable Matt Burston has been to this team and I honestly find them a scary prospect in a 3 game series (they have flogged everyone atleast once and been flogged numerous times too).

I just can't buy into Adelaide at present and when they win I'm more surprised than anything (especially that NZ game when it couldn't be more predictable). Jason Caddee is such a gem in this team and if he can penetrate and keep confidence in his shot then that seems to lift his team mates. In the past they have been negative in their body language when Jason takes a bad shot.

I can't see Sydney, NZ, Wollongong or Townsville making the playoffs and whoever plays Adelaide in the 1st round I see them being beaten. I think it will be Melbourne and hopefully we don't have the 3 playoffs series being sweeps like last season and NBL teams can make more money!

I think the championship is Perth's to lose.

Townsville are not going to make finals.
Wollongong will miss out

The top 4 is now 5 teams fighting for 3 spots, with Perth likely to get the MP. Adelaide could steal it, but need Perth to drop a few easy ones for it to happen.

Cairns - Need to win 5/7 games, probably 6/7 to make it happen, They have beaten Perth twice, so if they did finish 4th Perth should panic slightly. Likely to finish out of the placings.

NZ -A run of "easy" games for them and with the split on Sydney likely, they need to win 6/9 games to make finals. 3/9 games against Cairns so still very much open to 4th spot. They are +14 on the split with the Tigers too so their season is very much alive.

Sydney have the split on the Tigers, so watch out there. To finish 3rd they need Melbourne to drop a few easy ones and hope to finish on even wins. If they finished 3rd, then the Sixers might need to redraw some plays. Likely to finish 4th or 5th.

Melbourne - really only have 1 easy game out of 7 left which means they could be well hardened come finals. Likely to stave off and hold onto 3rd, but could tumble to 5th if they only win 2 or 3 of those 7.

Adelaide - The toughest run home - 95% sure they will make finals, but ladder position could vary.

Perth - Have made finals, should finish top, but only an entree of complacency will ensure they tumble off their perch.

Come finals, Adelaide have as good a chance as any of the 5 teams. I would say the probability of winning the flag at this point of time is:

Perth: 60%
Adelaide: 30%
Sydney: 5%
Melbourne: 4%
NZ: 1%

Betting wise, I would drop money on Perth, a lazy $20 on NZB as the smokey, and a bit on Adelaide.

Well, Perth giving Melbourne a defensive baking on their home court has put things back on the right track, but that Melbourne/Cairns slip-up, will be in back of mind for me until the season is over. Close losses, yes, but losses at home.

Hard to say, everyone bar Perth has had at least one team give them a solid thrashing during the season. Whether that counts for anything...

I still have Sydney as a dark-horse now they've turned their dynamic around. Have good records against two of the likely Top 4, and if they can avoid Perth (although Perth hasn't played them post-rebirth) then they may very well get it done.

I thought at the start of the season only 3 teams were capable of winning it all, that being Adl, Perth and Cairns. I still stand by that though the way Cairns have stuffed up some of their easy games this season they probably won't find themselves in a position to win it all. I don't think Adl or Perth should be concerned about Syd, Melb or NZ in a 3 game series. But they should be nervous if they have to play the unpredictable Taipans due to their depth and versatility.

Assuming he actually gets healthy and his head doesn't randomly fall off or anything.

Regardless of their indifferent results of late, I'm very confident Perth will finish top .. I don't see a team beating them twice in a three game series