Hoops

Who is going to win the NBL championship?

The other possibility with regard to scores decreasing as grand final series go on, is that the further in you get the more the officiating tends towards "let them play".

The idea that good defensive teams only play good defence in grand final deciders, and pin their hopes on average defence prior to that, is odd to say the least.

On Balance, I still think the final four will be:
NZ
Cairns
Perth
Melbourne (maybe Adelaide.)

Obviously you could compare it to their performances against better teams, but probably the best measure is comparing defensive performance of teams in the playoffs/grand final, that will help decide whether defence wins championships.

greybuoy, just buy me a beer next time you're in Cairns and we'll call it even mate:)

The NBL website has chopped off the last game Adelaide Vs Gong on the Banner fixtures for Round 20, thats probably where Dazz is getting confused :P

Dazz, every team plays their last game on Sunday 22 February with only NZ and Cairns playing one game each in the last minor round of the season.

"Wilson sting, boy beating the hawks by 3 at home is not day light. "

I'm assuming you didn't watch the game and just looked at the stat line.

That game was a good indication of how much more mentally strong and confident Cairns are in themselves this year than they have in the past. Traditionally they would have laid down and taken the loss but they won't stand for that now.

That describes most of the league that year.

Probably not in terms of DRtg, since they're playing better teams.

Regardless, "defence wins championships" usually comes up in the course of predicting the current season's champion based on whether or not a contender is a good defensive team, so I think my method is an adequate assessment of the claim used in that context.

Like anything on here, its an opinion (based on personal observation) but I would cite last years GF series.

I don't think the Cats are making up the numbers either. I still think we'd be a reasonable chance in any series against Adelaide or Cairns. We could potentially still win the thing if we manage to hold onto 3rd spot. We'd just need Adelaide to take care of NZ for us, as that's the one team we don't seem to be able to deal with this season.

My season predictions are all out the window. At the start Unitigers looked damn impressive to me, and I couldn't understand the hype Wilbekin was receiving in the early games. What was it based on?
While I still love watching Steve Dennis play I now see there isn't a lot of defensive ball pressure in his game, but Wilbekin is pretty extraoridinay defensively. I'm quite happy for King and the Podglodites to remind me I was just wrong all along. Craig has obviously now figured out what the Taipans do and I'm awed by his defensive contribution as well.
Maybe Cairns can bypass NZ in the finals or even defeat them. What i see now though is that no team will be Champions unless they defeat Adelaide.

It's NZ/cairns then daylight. Any other teams are just making up the numbers.

DEFENCE wins finals

I reckon Adelaide will hit their stride just before the finals and do it on their dicks, but would like to see Cairns get the money. With DJ and Motum in, Adelaide are just too talented.

Motum doesnt seem like a top bloke but he is a top player.

Plus you have the great Gibbo bringing the ball up the floor and getting in the opposition's earholes. They should be considered favourites.

Perth, NZ great teams but this isn't their year.

If Cairns won it would be a great story and i think the media would be more into it than if it was just the same old clubs winning it. Wouldn't mind if they won.

Adelaide are playing great, but I don't buy this optimism that they are true Championship contenders.

The Sixers are still a real risk of not making the finals at all. Teams who lose 7 in a row don't tend to win Championships (see Townsville in that year they had a great run, Wollongong last year). I believe there is also some crazy stat that the NBL has been won by a team in the top 2 every year since the current finals format.

I will be happy if the Sixers make some noise in the Semis, making the Finals would be a surprise and a bonus given the year we have had.

I have a feeling that we could see a Perth v Adelaide rematch.

NZ haven't played their best basketball yet and have players who are experienced in closing out finals games.
If they can't win it I hope the Taipans can pull it off.

Correct, Train.
If 4th beats 1st, they do not receive 1st's home court advantage. It remains set by regular season standings.

Anon : as far as I'm aware, the highest ranked team will get home court advantaged . So if Adelaide finish 4th and beat the top seed the Home court advantage would go to the winner of 2nd vs 3rd ( even if 3rd won the series ) :)

As much as I would love to see Adelaide in the finals I'm not going to make any predictions until after Melbourne's completed its sunshine swing.

Right now I'd probably guess NZ over Adelaide, but obviously a lot can change over a month.

Jack : do you mean Cairns finish 2nd (not 4th) ? Because I think it's impossible for Cairns to get any lower than second. :)

Cairns has to be right up there. Any series with 2 games in Cairns should be theirs for the taking. Let's say they finish 4th and Perth 3 rd, I reckon that would go Cairns way. Let's assume it's NZ v Adelaide on the other side and Adelaide get up, the Cairns v Adelaide series would go to 3 games

Wollongong in 2001 was the last time a regional ( not a major city) team won an NBL championship. Would be huge if Cairns won.

If I wasn't naturally paranoid I'd say Cairns, but I can see NZ win it because they want to spite me personally :C

I think any of the current top 4 have the ability to win. It all really depends on how the final standing are and who the matchups are. The most likely would be NZ at the moment but I wouldn't be surprised if any of the other 3 got the trophy. I don't think Perth can beat NZ at the moment but if Adelaide knocked over NZ and Perth beat Cairns in the semis they would be a good chance. I'd love to see Cairns win the title ( apart from Perth of course )