Hoops

Revisiting Martin vs Newley (vs others)

As good a place as any to put this I guess...


Australia's Most Humble Rio Olympian Just Had Two Amazing Wins

http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/08/12/australias-most-humble-rio-olympian-just-had-two-amazing-wins/

Exum chose not to play. It was his decision.

AJ Ogilvy was out of the running from day 1. People were perplexed but we know there's bad blood there. As for worse than Bairstow, I don't see how Bairstow has been at all bad in the Olympics.

For what Martin and Goulding have brought so far you may as well have had Exum warming the bench as he has certainly been seen to be one of the boys on NBA get togethers and he could have really benefitted from an Olympic experience but obviously that wasn't an option thanks to the Jazz.

What's surprised me is that with Bogut being injured more people didn't want to mention AJ Ogilvy and his omission from the initial squad and I think he wouldn't have been that much worse than what we have seen from Bairstow and Motum

Still I'm happy with our team and look forward to seeing who represents our country after Lemanis era ends

For what Martin and Goulding have brought so far you may as well have had Exum warming the bench as he has certainly been seen to be one of the boys on NBA get togethers and he could have really benefitted from an Olympic experience but obviously that wasn't an option thanks to the Jazz.

What's surprised me is that with Bogut being injured more people didn't want to mention AJ Ogilvy and his omission from the initial squad and I think he wouldn't have been that much worse than what we have seen from Bairstow and Motum

Still I'm happy with our team and look forward to seeing who represents our country after Lemanis era ends

One small guard to many imo.
Wouldn't have taken Motum either

"The last few years Goulding has been a volume shooter, and it's fair to ask whether his pure scoring ability in the NBL will translate into pure scoring at this level."

It could, as Gaze, Heal, Penny and Webster have shown, but I don't think Goulding has the international experience yet to make it happen (and I doubt he'll ever have a heap of plays run for him like that quartet).

Guys who have played internationally from a young age tend to have an advantage, because it really is a different ballgame from any club competition.

Was worth bringing Damo for that steal today...

I'm fairly sure I saw a few plays run for Patty that are along the same lines as the ones Demopoulos constantly runs for Goulding at UTD- double screen down low.

I do think Mo, though, that you raise an interesting question regarding Goulding's ability to fit into such a patient motion system. The last few years Goulding has been a volume shooter, and it's fair to ask whether his pure scoring ability in the NBL will translate into pure scoring at this level. (I hope we get an opportunity to see how he goes, he did at least do OK in the Spanish league in 2014-15). Its probably true that Damo would be a "safer bet" in the sense that you probably feel more comfortable knowing what you'll get- hard nosed D and hustle. Damo brings what he brings more consistently. Goulding is a higher risk, higher return proposition. Like in the NBL, he could have a shocker and miss 6 shots in a row, or he could just go nuts.

The only reason I wouldn't have Motum in the same conversation as Goulding/Damo is that we probably needed a 5th big given that we were rolling the dice on Bogut's health.

I know that Lemanis loves his mobile PFs, but that doesn't really appear to be a necessary role (judging by the first two games). Nonetheless, we needed another big that could play PF and I can't think of an obvious option that was better-suited than Motum.

Fair points, AngusH/LV regarding Goulding's spark-plug ability. I'd select Martin over Goulding only because I think he's a better fit for Lemanis's style of play, not because I'd personally prioritise another defensive guard over an offensive one.

Yep, agreed, Mo. Very good points. I think you can make a case that Newley should have been included for Martin or Goulding. Or even Motum, as Paul has suggested.

You could similarly make a case against Martin on the basis that both Delly and Lisch are hard nosed defenders at the guard spot, and both are *significantly* more effective than Damo offensively.

So, whilst Goulding doesn't bring much that Delly, Mills, Lisch, Broekhoff etc don't already bring, I'd argue that Martin doesn't add a whole lot either, and his inclusion on court will actually make us a lot weaker on one end.

The only reason Goulding is not getting minutes is cause his defence is poor. Can see him logging some good minutes vs China..

I guess Mo’s point is we have a number of players who can do that. We don’t have anyone who brings Newley’s attributes to a pressing defence to get the ball back and allow those speculative triples.

I think Goulding at least brings something different to the team. If we find ourselves down by double digits entering the 4th, bring in Goulding and see what happens. He'll either knock down 4 contested 3s in a row, or hit the side of the backboard and get subbed right back out again.

Decent case you present there Mo.

Nobody has mentioned Goulding's selection. I understand there is generally a spot designated for a shooter (e.g. Peter Crawford/Michael Redd type 'zone-busters'), but Goulding might only be the 4th-best spot up shooter on the team behind Mills, Delly and Broekhoff.

Given our guard rotation leans pretty heavily on Mills/Delly, followed by Lisch who can also shoot and Damo who is there to fill a defensive role, I don't think Goulding offers a lot - reflected by his minutes so far.

Also taking into account Goulding's main strength is his ability to create a shot for himself:
1. He won't be nearly as effective internationally as he is domestically,
2. That doesn't entirely fit into Lemanis's offensive system, and
3. IF we needed someone to fill that role, Mills would probably be our go-to option at guard. Besides, Lisch isn't substantially worse than Goulding in this respect, and Delly has proven to be a very serviceable scorer too thus far.

If Mills or Delly were injured or in foul trouble, would Goulding leapfrog Damo? Wouldn't Ingles or Newley be able to fill that role just as well, if not better?

Forget about Damo's selection: not that I mean to hate on Bubbles or even criticise Lemanis, but I would've taken Newley instead of Goulding.

Hopefully with Scott Butler in charge the NBL will adjust the way it calls the guy defending the ball this season so they’re forced to gap them a bit, it allows the offence to show off their skills more.

He did play too tight at times, which is what Damo did vs France too, but to me that's part of the learning experience when you jump up from NBL level to international. He's a smart defender and I'd back him (as with Damo) to learn & adjust from that.

I don't remember him getting blown by, he was defending a guy who was using a ball screen, it then becomes team defence.

I did see him get blown by about five times against Serbia, yes. (Seriously, he was beaten off the dribble way too many times when he tried to play tight. To me it stood out as much as Delly's offensive effort.). And come on, I don't think a couple of buckets against France's pathetic D is worth mentioning here. You or I probably could have scored in that game.

Look, I realise he can shoot the ball and that he is quicker and craftier than Martin off the dribble, I'm just saying that I don't really consider him to be a genuine scoring or playmaking threat in this comp.

He'll no doubt now have a huge game against the US, leading us to a miraculous win, making an absolute fool of me, but I felt this way at time of selection and I haven't seen anything YET to change my mind about him as an international player.

Did you see him in the France game (7p on 3/4FG) or the lead-ups, or his D against Serbia? He's had a lot more positives than negatives so far.

KL is still a guy who should be actively looking to score, and who should be putting the shot up any time he is left open.
Damo is a guy who should be actively pretending to look to score in the hope that his defender buys it and we're left with 4 vs 4 elsewhere on the court.

Yes, Lisch didn't look particularly threatening vs Serbia but at least he keeps the defence honest. If you watched the France game you'd know he was effective in that one.

* Or 'head and shoulders ABOVE Martin', because that actually makes sense...

'At this level' guys. Did you watch the Serbia game? Lisch looked about as threatening out there as what one of the 4-foot-8 Chinese gymnasts would be.

At NBL level he's obviously head and shoulders ahead of Martin, but this is a whole different ball game.

"The overall point is a fair one though. Lisch playing major minutes is pretty scary due to his size."

I think our guard rotation works very well, all can hit the shot and create for others, and all three combos work well together.

Lisch and Delly together is a very good defensive line-up. For a FIBA rookie, Lisch's D on Teodosic yesterday was pretty impressive.

"Throw in that, at this level, Martin and Lisch are pretty much the same player - undersized hustlers who offensively can really only bring the ball up the court in a straight line and shoot if they're wide open (and with Martin you'd rather him not shoot at all) - it makes the selections even more bizarre."

Are there any other players you've never seen play before that you wish to comment on?

That is the first, and hopefully only, time I have ever heard Lisch & Damo described as similar offensively. What the?

The overall point is a fair one though. Lisch playing major minutes is pretty scary due to his size. So far we've gotten away with it but it's not ideal. It'd be nice to find some time for Goulding and get him some familiarity & confidence on the court in case we need him later on.
Yet another reason why I think we need to forget about the USA result and focus entirely on our own needs going forward, which include restricting the minutes of our key players, and getting our "last 3" some meaningful court time.

Dazz, get the chip off the shoulder. The point here is that we have five guards 6'3 or shorter and just two legit wings; we're pretty much locked into to always having an undersized backcourt. When you also consider that our most agile big man is probably Brock Motum, we're incredibly inflexible, which could hurt should anything at all happen to either Broekhoff or Ingles, be it injury or another game like against Serbia where, for all but about 45 seconds, we didn't really get much from them.

Throw in that, at this level, Martin and Lisch are pretty much the same player - undersized hustlers who offensively can really only bring the ball up the court in a straight line and shoot if they're wide open (and with Martin you'd rather him not shoot at all) - it makes the selections even more bizarre.

I’ve liked Bairstow’s defence, he defends ball screens well and can switch and stay in front of a guard late in the shot clock. He also does the team things pretty well, which is important.

If it were me, I would have picked Newley over Motum. That gives us wing depth, defensive depth and if we want a different look at the four run Newley, Broekhoff and Ingles together from 2-4 for short bursts.

You could argue Motum is still young so is an investment for the future, but when available Ben Simmons will be our stretch four from now until he retires, so I don’t really buy that.

Bairstow doesn't stand out, no. He's not really world class in any facet of his game. But let's face it - he's there because he's a competent all-rounder and there's no one better. I've got no problem with him being there.
Martin was presumably included with a specific role in mind, which we haven't really required yet. So you could consider that a waste but it's also a good thing.
Maric/Jawai I agree with you about, but it's moot anyway with Bogut available.
I can understand people having an issue with Newley being left out. He likely would have chipped in some minutes in the first 2 games and I think his experience/poise would have made him a safe option. But to me, until Broekhoff is playing so many minutes that he needs a rest, there are no minutes that Brad would be playing that I wouldn't prefer being given to Ryan.

At the end of the day, I'm not going to complain about a single thing that's happened to this point. Lemanis & this group have already exceeded my expectations. He knows what he wants, and who he is comfortable with fitting into his system.

The Boomers on-court stuff through 2 games will silence me on criticizing Lemanis too much, but still should've been Newley/Jawai in over Martin/Maric - both guys would probably have contributed over the first couple of games. I'm still not sure what Bairstow brings as a player either. I'm sure he'll be fine in the NBL, but at this level he doesn't seem to standout on either end to me.

Regarding Motum, I'm thinking the Office Space movie and the line "...what would you say you DO here?"

Mick, Motum at the 3 isn't great, but I'm not convinced 3 of our guards will work on court together either. Perhaps against some opponents in some situations it would be a fine strategy, but the point is we don't want to be forced into it

As if we need a 12 man rotation. Seriously.

Yes, clearly Lemanis has no idea wtf he's doing and should be sacked immediately.
The selection of Martin is obviously stoopid because its a scientifically proven fact that everyone at the Wildcats cannot play basketball and they only win by flopping.

The contention that we somehow need Newley to counter the USA, must rank as one of the most bizarre.
If Ingles and Broekhoff are out muscled at the 3 by the USA, what hope would Newley have?

As I said at the time, when you get down to picking 11 & 12 for a tourney, presumably you're picking role players for specific "what if" scenarios.
I could barely speculate as to what Lemanis has in mind, but I certainly trust his judgement over that of a bunch of Martin-Haters on Hoops.

@LV

"Motum at the 3"


Surely you can't be serious...

It just means we have less lineup flexibility. At some point someone is going to force us to go small and that will be the true test of this team, because the idea with small ball is to have big guards and wings all over the floor with one traditional big. It really hurts when you go small with small guards/wings.

Also Newley has shown time and again that he can be effective with very limited touches, which is important at this level. He'll catch and shoot, catch and slash straight away etc. and get his 8 or so points without hardly even touching the ball or getting many mins off the bench, which his replacements cannot do.

I don't think you worry about matching up against the US because no one can, it will only be a problem if another team has the ability to go small and be successful, and fingers crossed no one can/will.

It would also help to have him out there if Broekhoff's shot is not falling, because Broekhoff doesn't offer a whole lot other than 3pt shooting. Newley is much more well-rounded.

No matter which way you look at it, and whether it sinks us or not, it was a dumb, bizarre decision.

The lack of length at the wings is yet to hurt us and judging from the games thus far it doesn't look like it will unless there is an injury *knock on wood*.

USA is a special circumstance and everyone is going to have some glaring deficit against them.

Leaving out Newley for Martin was always a bizarre decision with Delly, Mills & Lisch for ball handling and only Ingles & Broekhoff on the wings but what's done is done.

It won't make much of a difference unless there's injuries. We're only talking about who would've made for better insurance, basically. I doubt Martin, Goulding or Motum will get the opportunity to play meaningful minutes in any of the important games.

As it stands, we can withstand injuries to two of Patty, Delly and Lisch, and still have a full 40 minutes of players all playing in their best positions.

Whereas if either of Ingles or Broekhoff were to go down, we'd need to play stretches of the game with either Motum at the 3 or with 3 guards on court.

'sif it will make a difference...

Seeing as the game is on tonight and im getting excited i figure why not have a predictions thread? i know its only a friendly but someone still has to win. my guess is Sixers by 7