Hoops

Boomers crossover opponent impossible to predict

Having said that, I don't think Spain will be scared of playing the US in the SFs.

Spain losing those first two basically meant they couldn't massage results, and opened the door for Lithuania to put them on the USA's side of the draw while keeping themselves on the oppo side.

Mmm Croatia v Serbia, that should be really "friendly"

We are definitely on the desirable side of the draw. Just need to go through Lithuania and Croatia/Serbia to get to the gold medal game. Not easy, but it was never going to be. Well done Boomers.

Croatia/Serbia will be a cracker of a game.

Spain get second I think and will meet the US in the semis. Not their best tournament massaging the results.

Of course they looked like they were trying, that's how you do it, so nobody suspects it. Check out Spain v Brazil from 2012.

Lithuania DID NOT tank today's game by any stretch of the imagination.

Final placings are:

Croatia
Spain
Lithuania
Argentina

So we draw Lithuania in the QF?

Australia(A2) vs Lithuania(B3)
Croatia(B1) vs Serbia(A4)

Spain(B2) vs France(A3)
USA(A1) vs Argentina(B4)

http://www.fiba.com/olympics/2016/groups (click on the brackets tab)

Nah Paul, Kalneitis ended up playing 40 mins, Maciulis 34 mins, Valanciunas 33 minutes, Jankunas 28 mins. They played a full court defense for the last 3 minutes- they looked like they were trying at the end.

Interestingly Bogdanovic received a corky in the dying seconds. Hope he is alright. That's huge- he's been the player of the tournament.

Don't understand those claiming Lithuania didn't want to win?
I thought had they won, they would have gone to the top of table B?
Not only a notionally easier QF draw, but avoid the USA? Doesn't matter now.

So what are the final placings?

"Aus for good or bad isn't great at tanking."

Exactly. Look at Lithos today and Spain in final pool game of 2012, that's how you get the result you want.

Results go to a mini-pool between tied teams. We get Lithuania.

Interesting that Lithuania would prefer to play Australia than Serbia. Hopefully we can dish them a nice serving of karma as Turkey did to us in 2014.

Lithuania is definitely trying to win- this has turned into a great comeback! Croatia forced to call a time out, with a 6 point lead with 43.3 seconds on the clock. Might be trying to work out how to deal with Lithuania's full court pressure.

Back to a six point game (after blowing out to 22)

Watched most of the last quarter. Croatia has it in the bag now.

Lithuania has been playing their starters, and they look like they're working hard out there.

Maybe they're just out of form. If so, thats great for the Boomers!

Lithuania starting to show some passion now, but it might be too late...

Agree, all the bonehead plays make them look very beatable.

Only watched a few minutes of each quarter, but Croatia looks more switched on and more invested in the outcome.

I'm not suggesting Lithuania is "throwing it" but Croatia is playing harder and with more focus because they have more to play for.

Lithuania are going for the win, they just aren't getting it.

Looks like they will be our crossover right now. After their last two games, I'm sure they'll be tough, but I am not shitting myself.

I am not sure, Lithuania keep doing unexplainable boneheaded things, which suggests to me one team is more invested than the other.

Croatia up by 8 early in the third quarter.

By the looks of the minutes spread, Lithuania appear to be going for the win though! Valanciunas has has played ~17 mins so far.

The minute spreads suggest both teams want to win- both have only used 8 players in first half.

Feeling great about this Lith vs Cro game.

If Croatia wins I'll make a bit of pocket money, if Lithuania wins Boomers get a better quarter final match. I'll be happy either way. WIN WIN!

Croatia should win. Australia should play Lithuania, with the winner playing Croatia vs Serbia.

Notice the odds- Croatia have come in from $2.87 to $2.25 with Sportsbet and from $3.00 to $2.15 with TAB.

Seems like people have noticed the same thing I have- that Croatia has a LOT to play for in this game, and Lithuania have very little to gain from a win.

Firstly, Lithuania might think there's little to gain from playing Serbia as opposed to Australia, and secondly, losing will have an added benefit of scoping out one of their two possible semi final opponents when that opponent is desperately trying to win. (Lithuania, if they beat Aus, would play Serbia or Croatia. Lithuania can scout Croatia in this game today).

All of this just adds up to a Croatia win for me. Hope I'm wrong- Argentina is preferable, they get outrebounded every game and have been beaten up inside by big teams- Lith, Spain- and good bigs eg Gasol, Nene.

Well as long as Lithuania tidy up against Croatia we should have Argentina. Looks like we've been focusing on our rebound of late, dominating China and Venezuela when it became apparent that it was an issue.

That is probably the best we could have hoped for.

I think Argentina is very beatable. They are terrible rebounders where we should have a big advantage inside.

Lithuania is beatable also, but they just play such great tough basketball I fear it may just disrupt the passing game we have been running.

Looking further ahead, if we win our prelim we'd face the winner of France and either Croatia or Spain.

Looks like it will be one of your last two options. Our opponent will probably be either Argentina or Lithuania.

Since Brazil won, my calcs:

Argentina wins, Spain is out.

Arg and Lithuania win
A
Lithuania 4-1
Argentina 4-1
Croatia 2-3
Brazil 2-3

Arg wins then Croatia wins
Argentina 4-1
Croatia 3-2
Lithuania 3-2
Brazil 2-3

Spain and Lithuania win
Lithuania 4-1
Spain 3-2
Argentina 3-2
Croatia 2-3

Spain and Croatia win
Croatia 3-2(2-1, Beat Spain)
Spain (2-1, lost to Croatia)
Lithuania (1-2, Beat Argentina)
Argentina (1-2, lost to Lithuania)

Motum is too soft for this level of basketball. He shies away from physical contact too much which makes his shots easier to block. For all of his slinky moves he doesn't seem to amount to much but thankfully Lemanis knows how deep on the bench to bury him.

Goulding has put his hand up for minutes, I might add. He has been good on the boards, he has been much improved defensively, and he doesn't have hangups about putting the ball in the ring. He's definitely good insurance if Broekhoff continues to miss everything.

I am wondering whether ending with two weak opponents will help or hinder us. By the time the quarterfinals are played on Thursday morning it will have been a week since the USA game - the last game where they put a real effort in. It's not a long time, but it is possible the opposition could be more 'at home' with the intensity by the time we come in. Or it could have the opposite effect: We might jump out the gate like a bull possessed and outhustle them because we'd be the best rested team in the tournament by far. It is hard to know. Either way the beautiful offense they started the tournament with and the rigid defense hasn';t been seen for a few games now. Maybe the last two games have been played like the exhibition games were, and they will jump in and do it all over again the way they started off with France? I really can't wait to see.

Either way, I can't imagine us being as sloppy and disinterested as the past few days - knock on wood.

I have to agree with you on that and watching the last two games we've clearly been playing down to the level of the competition. The China game wasn't as bad but the game this morning against Venezuela we only had a single figure lead for large stretches of it and looked flat out uninterested.

At least Lemanis had Goulding on the floor who you know is hungry for his points so that will work for you but Motum was spudding it up too much. He's really gone backwards since leaving the 36ers.

I wouldn't overlook that at all - the quarterfinals scare me. But I think we're as good a chance as anyone in the top half of the 8 of progressing.

As for Spain, depends on what you judge that on; the 50 point win to Lithuania or their past. They're an aging power and they haven't played well yet despite the win that you imply might have been tanking.

I like Australia's chances against Lithuania or Croatia. Spain and Argentina are a bit harder I think with their experience but it's doable.

I am not sure if I like the tactic the Boomers have used with these last two pool games. I am thinking we should put form and continuity ahead of everything else. The last two games have been big, easy wins, but they've been sloppy and it's not a good habit to get into.

What some people overlook is that even though we're clearly a good team the QF are do or die elimination games. All you need is to have an off game or an opponent has scouted you well and medal hopes can go out the window just like that.

A lot of ducks and drakes get played in the group stage games (look at Lithuania's 50 point loss to Spain or Nigeria's win over Croatia). QF and beyond is when it gets serious.

Lithuania have a very good record against us in major international tournaments and Spain on their day should be too much for us to handle so hopefully to give us a chance to medal I hope we draw either Argentina or Croatia in the QF. Get over one of them and you're in the semi's and even if you lose that you're going into the bronze medal game.

Lithuania have pretty much the same group who lost the Eurobasket final to Spain last year.

Agreed, though- I'll back Australia to beat Lithuania.

Given Spain is just hitting form at the right time, it might take a heck of an effort to beat them, but I feel that this Aussie group has the mental toughness and experience to do the job there too.

I think people get a little obsessed by the name "Lithuania". This Lithuanian squad is not nearly as strong as they usually are and they seem to lack height inside.

"Probably but I wouldn't be confident of beating either that's for sure."

I am nervous about the quarters but I think we can beat anyone in the tournament on our game.

Probably but I wouldn't be confident of beating either that's for sure.

That's ancient history though.

I'd rather play Lithuania than Spain, that's for sure.

Given our history against them I would think Lithuania would rather play us than Serbia. The last thing we need is running into Lithuania in the QF.

That was meant to say "why bust your ass and work hard to try and face Serbia"

Lithuania might think that Australia and Serbia are roughly an equal proposition.

If so, why bust your ass and work hard to try and face Australia, when you could spread the minutes around and ensure everyone's well rested for the Quarter final in 2 days time?

Whereas, depending on other results, Croatia could have massive incentive to win vs Lith- ie avoiding a QF vs USA.

I might put some $ on Croatia- $3.00 at TAB and $2.87 at Sportsbet.

"So Lithuania dropped the game against Spain and now can only finish 1st or 3rd rather than 1st or 2nd?

1st or 3rd avoids the USA until the final."

Did Lithuania know about this scenario before they played Spain?

Lithuania also play the last game in the round, so if Lithuania prefer to play Australia rather than Serbia, they might throw the game versus Croatia.

If you look at Argentina's games. Croatia's big man Bilan got into foul trouble and only played 12 minutes. Plus, Croatia looks to Bogdanovic a lot.

Against Lithuania, Argentina was outrebounded 51-29 and got beaten. Against Brazil, Nene destroyed Argentina on the inside. Bogut and Baynes can do likewise.

Argentina's strength is the run and gun and three point shooting. But Delly and Patty are strong, tough defenders who will pressure the ball handlers and scramble to get a hand on the threes (as will Lisch, and Damo whose legend has grown in this tourny) so I don't think that style will be as effective against Australia like it was against Croatia, Nigeria and Brazil.

I could be completely wrong about all of this, but having seen plenty of Argentina, that's a match up I'd feel more comfortable with than Spain or Lithuania.

I don't know which quarterfinal match-up we'd favour, with each possible opponent being scary in different ways. Spain played like a dormant power to start the tournament, but they have major talent and experience to turn it on in the quarters with some signs of recent form; Argentina have an experienced team with veterans that could carry the team with quasi-home court advantage; Croatia are young but look very dangerous with a couple stars in top form; Lithuania is always a powerhouse and had an impressive streak to start the tournament; and Brazil haven't been consistent, but they have talent and you can't discount the effect of true home court advantage. It's scary.

So Lithuania dropped the game against Spain and now can only finish 1st or 3rd rather than 1st or 2nd?

1st or 3rd avoids the USA until the final.

"But I fear we grabbed an early jump against France and Serbia before they each got their game going,"

I was thinking the same thing, but each of those teams only has one particularly impressive game to their name at this point. I feel like today should have been more about keeping rhythm with players who'll actually play at the quarters rather than resting stars. We can beat anyone there, though. But there is a big difference between 'can' and 'will'.

I beg to differ, I think Australia’s best matchup is vs Argentina. We have two obvious advantages against them: Size and Depth.

The plan would be to pound the ball inside, try and get Scola and Nocioni into foul trouble. Argentina are heavily reliant on both of those guys. Also, they’re both 36 years old and have been playing big minutes every second day- they might wear out towards the end of the tournament. As I said earlier, if Argentina plays a zone and double teams us inside the paint (as they have been doing a bit) Bogut is a good enough passer to find open shooters. We’ve got plenty of outside shooting in our squad, so good luck with that strategy.

Whereas, Spain and Lithuania have both got strong long term records in international play. They met in last year’s Eurobasket final with similar teams. Spain has now found their feet. And unlike Argentina, Australia doesn’t appear to have any obvious advantage against either of them.

Will be very interested in the results tomorrow. I do hope we avoid Spain, but there really isn't a 'good' team to hope to match up on (perhaps Brazil?)

We can beat all of those teams, and we are playing great basketball. But I fear we grabbed an early jump against France and Serbia before they each got their game going, each game from here involves some sort of toss of the coin.

Thanks, good article

I looked it up, the tie breaker methodology is actually 1. Results of games between tied teams (mini pool), 2. Goal average in games between tied teams (% within mini pool).

This article explains the situation fairly well

http://www.eurohoops.net/featured/298605/thriller-in-group-b