Hoops

United vs Breakers, Dec 4

It is high, and the past two rounds I think it's 6/10 road wins going into tonight's game.

We'll know more about Melbourne after next round. They're good at home with Goulding and Ware, but they'll need to be a good road team to make the playoffs.

No reason they can't be, their possession game stuff is improved on last season and they have great depth.

Bolstered by the results these past two weeks

Melbourne are still way behind the 8 ball. No doubting that. Despite their 3 wins in a row.

But in their favour- they are 6-2 with Goulding, 3-0 with Ware. At full strength they look a clear top 4 team, so that gives one confidence that they'll get the ones that really matter down the stretch.

Interestingly, away teams have won 21 of 52 games this season. Or 40.4%. That seems high.

Melbourne have a big week coming up. They've played 9/13 at home but are 6-7, so you'd think they will have to pinch a number of road wins to make the playoffs.

Dropping two this week would leave them with a big challenge ahead, and while neither Perth or Sydney are full strength or in form, they will be tough to beat.

PS: I'm happy copping heat on an internet forum- all good fun for discussion. If daylight becomes the catchphrase of the season, I'll happily take all the credit, all in good fun ;-)

Yes, it is incredibly close but Cairns have had 8 from 12 away games, and their best player Trice missing plenty of games. Plus the guy I consider their second best and second most important player- Jawai- missed games too and took a while to get comfortable. So whilst it is close, they appear in the best position to make a run at a top 2 position from here.

And Cairns have never really had a sustained period where major concerns have arisen about their team. Very few other teams can say the same, in this even league.

(Well, I haven't wavered on Melbourne either. It's more that injuries kind of got in the way a bit there. But with a 6 game CG43 winning streak and Ware turning out as good as advertised if not better, things are looking up! Even though DD is still at the helm, they will to the top 4 if Ware keeps playing like this)

Comment above was about NZ obviously. Yep, Cairns have been solid, but they're right in the pack with everyone else. Two games from top to bottom when we're approaching half way is just ridiculous!

Certainly their past four games have been poor, the six games before that they won five and were close to the best team in the comp.

That's the thing with this season, things change quickly, that's why you cop so much for silly comments like Sydney then daylight or Illawarra are clearly the worst team.

I should add, Cairns is pretty much the only team I haven't really wavered on. They have been rock solid all the way through, even when losing their first 3 games.

Just goes to show, occasionally I do make a smart prediction too ;-)

There's no point worrying about who can beat NZ in the playoffs if, you know, NZ don't even make the playoffs...

Melbourne has won 3 in a row after changing point guards mid season too. (However, admittedly that did coincide with Goulding's return - he has been brilliant).

Still, plenty of teams have performed well in the face of injuries- Cairns, Adelaide being two. When you factor in overall performance alongside disruptions, scheduling etc- NZ has, to this point, been the most disappointing team of the season.

Cairns is indeed the impressive one, though. They are currently in the strongest position of any team, with a 6-6 record and 10 of their remaining 16 games at home. Not bad for the pre season wooden spoon favourites!

I think I actually said no other team is a clear favourite over Perth and NZ until they show they can beat them in the playoffs due to the sustained success of those two teams.

The four-game losing streak coincides with changing over both their PGs, which is a massive disruption. Same thing is happening with Perth. The Hawks struggled with Norton out.

Cairns is the impressive one in they've produced some very good performances without Trice.

^ me

I totally agree that their D is weak. I watched both of their games over the weekend. I was only commenting on one thing. Pledger and Vukona aren't talented scorers, Mitchell can tick the scoreboard over a bit but has limited range, so is still fairly one dimensional. Loe is similarly one dimensional, cos all he does is pop 3's. So my view is that the 4 main guys from 1-3 need to seriously step it up for NZ to be successful. Whether that happens, we will see.

I can recall a few weeks ago you raving on about how good NZ are. They've had a better run with injuries than pretty much anyone else, they've had a consistent lineup save for their point guard change, yet they're on a 4 game skid and are currently putting the S in Struggle. So maybe your expect opinions are off the mark sometimes too ;-).

No, that shows they have a spread of scorers, despite having a lot of players capable of scoring a lot of points.

They are third in scoring, first in FG% and first in 3p%. When they execute their offence is the best in the league.

Their problem is they keep turning the ball over too much, and their transition D is poor at covering for those turnovers.

Anyway, I'll leave it at that, and I'll file your NZ don't have scoring depth along with your Sydney then daylight and Illawarra are clearly the worst team in the league!

No need to be rude- just my perceptions from watching 2-3 games a week- I don't spend my life writing articles and reading stats, so stop being so patronising. I'd much rather be wrong than be a condescending douche.

Having said that, now that I've had a chance to actually look at the stats: Pledger got his sole 20 point performance in an overtime (ie: Extended game, more minutes to get your 20) win over a severely depleted Melbourne. Webster's done it twice, and one of those was in a huge win at home against an undermanned Adelaide. In fact Webster has failed to even score 15 points in all but 3 games. And he's supposed to be their best scorer.

In 8 of NZ's 14 games, no one has scored 20 points. That's a worse percentage of games than almost every other team. This supports my observation that individuals simply haven't been stepping up enough and winning them games. (It's better than Melbourne, but that doesn't count for much since Goulding's missed half the season and Ware has only played 3 games).

"My point was more about number of guys who can really step up and score at a high clip."

God you make some stuff up in the hope it's right! They've had six players score 20 or more this season and 10 score in double figures.

NZ clearly do have issues at both ends of the floor, which is usually the case when a team strings this many losses together.

It will be interesting seeing how they go vs Adelaide. They will feel confident because they destroyed the 36ers last time, and the 36ers are a bit loose defensively. Stockton will want to tighten things up though, going against Randle

Rob Loe needs to play more.

Overall that's just a function of them playing more guys for more minutes, though. They have 7 players averaging more than 20 minutes a game and 8 playing more than 15 (Those stats are real gm- not including yesterday's game yet).

I haven't checked the numbers but I doubt any/many other NBL teams would have that many guys averaging 20 minutes. It's because NZ lacks depth and doesn't play the kids much. So of course, they will have "scoring depth" if you talk about players scoring 9ppg, 10ppg etc.

My point was more about number of guys who can really step up and score at a high clip. Penney is still a prolific scorer but has slowed down a little compared to last year and is gradually becoming more one dimensional as he loses the ability to score off the dribble, Webster isn't having a good year. Jury still out on Stockton.

Like I said- they may well turn it around. They certainly have talent. But right now, I don't see enough individuals really stepping it up, like say Ware and Goulding have been for Melbourne in different games, Trice for Cairns, etc. Stockton was outstanding against the Hawks on Friday, I did see that game...but still not enough to get them the win.

... and the fact teams move the ball through hands a lot.

I look at things like number of players scoring above a certain mark.

NZ have five averaging in double figures (more than GSW and SAS have in 48min games)and seven averaging more than 7ppg (more than GSW and same as Spurs), which is outstanding.

Perth and Adelaide are the only teams that I would say lacks scoring depth, but some of the 36ers' young players are starting to contribute more.

Overall, for some time the NBL has been a league with excellent scoring depth due to the even level of talent across rosters and the league.

What numbers do you use to measure scoring depth, Paul?

I do agree though, that there are several teams without much scoring depth. This is a factor in favour of Mel and Sydney (Lisch and Newley have been a two man show but Cadee will find his stroke again eventually, Whittington and Powell are handy scorers and a new import you would think might replace Blake at some point. Plus Khazzouh, if he returns may add extra scoring punch). You generally need good D *and* good scoring depth to compete for a championship.

It is clear Webster is the problem with NZ. He exudes a bad attitude, hogs the ball and it puts the guys like Stockton and Mitchell in two minds as to where they should be or what they should be doing.

An interesting note from this game, Melbourne's crowd of 10,300 surpassed Perth's of 10,255 on Thursday.

When was the last time the Wildcats played at home and didn't have the largest crowd of the round? Probably in the Challenge days I'm guessing.

"Breakers do not have a lot of scoring depth."

If you look at the numbers, along with Melbourne the Breakers have the best scoring depth in the league.

NZ's issue is most obviously turnovers and defence. When you keep taking the ball out of the net it puts a lot of pressure on your half-court offence, and when you keep coughing it up it puts a lot of pressure on your transition D.

I wonder how long they persist with Stockton, his defence is a long way off the mark and that leaves the front door open. And while offensively he's a good individual talent, he's not doing a good job of organising their sets and he is turnover prone.

Breakers do not have a lot of scoring depth. Of the 4 bigs Mitchell is individually the most dangerous offensively, but he just doesn't appear to be on a level where he can consistently hit 15ppg. Plus, he shares minutes. But none of the 4 bigs will regularly win games with their scoring. This means for NZ to be successful they need big-time scoring from their guards and wings. It isn't happening for Webster, Abercrombie is in a slump and whilst Stockton has shown signs, he hasn't had the impact of the likes of Ware and Trice.

Still, they could all get their confidence back in a game. A quarter even.

I was also watching Webster today thinking how his ball dominance ruins movement and stagnates the offence. Kind of like the NBL's version of Dion Waiters.

Wonder if th Breakers would be bold enough to cut bait when he's off contract.

The only saving grace is that we are only a couple of games out of first place.

Sad for people talking the way they are, Not our fault other clubs couldn't keep up to the standard both teams have set.

I'll be laughing if one of us wins it again.

Perth and Nz not done yet.

Vukona copped it from the crowd. Dominating win by Melbourne its great to see Perth and NZ playing shit isnt it!

LOL..look at all you people living in LALA land..

Just continue to pretend this league isnt rife with players betting in games

It's an odd season, not only because of how close it is, but consider that Adelaide and Brisbane both have a better away record than home record.

That last 30 seconds is the most RIGGED CROOKED CORRUPT THING I HAVE SEEN IN MY LIFE

The total points over under in this game was 171.5

Look at that last 30 seconds of the game.

United up over 20 minutes, and BOTH teams are playing full court pressure and INTENTIONALLY FOULING?

WHY?

Why was the Breakers BEST PLAYERS in the game with 30 seconds left and down by 20?

What was Penney doing there? Abercrombie? Webster?



Why was Tomlinson INTENTIONALLY fouling Stockton when his team was up by 24 points with 7 seconds left? WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY?

Now, look at last 7 seconds of the game...After the Breakers player went to the free throw line...watch Webster walk up to Penney and whisper something in his ear.

Low and behold they intentionally foul Tomlinson

Why the FUCK ARE YOU FOULING DOWN 22 points with 5 seconds left? Why? I fucking tell you why, because these piece of shit WHORES are gambling on games...thats FUCKING why.

That uneducated corrupt Webster is paying off his fine by betting on this game...thats what happened.

And notice as soon as the Thomlinson made the free throw and the points went over the total, the Breakers didnt look like they wanted to jack up a shot.

FUCK YOU

The most CROOKED CORRUPT LEAGUE I HAVE EVER SEEN...absolutely NO FUCKING REASON to foul down 22 points with 5 seconds left...

Look at Webster whispering in Penneys ear.

I swear i wait for the day these FUCKING piece of shit WHORES get caught.

Oh, and what about last week in the Kings 36ers game?

LOL..Kings down by 6 with 24 seconds left and they dont foul..and it stays under the total by half a point.

Breakers down by 22 with 5 seconds left and they foul???

LOLOl

What does it feel like watching a CROOKED FUCKING CORRUPT LEAGUE

Fixing has infiltrated this league...sad...what a shame.

Adelaide have NZ next, that's annoying. NZ are due for a win now

United's chosen a good time to hit form. Needed some confidence heading into a 3 game road stretch.

I swear on this day...there is a big gambling syndicate happening in this league...

100% FUCKING FIXED PIECE OF SHIT LEAGUE

Down by 25 points with 1 minute left and the Breakers have Penney, Webster, Abercrombie in?

LOL...This league....absolutely NO CLASS

A lot of yak yak happening. NZ really not liking losing to Mel.

Was Penney getting into it with the crowd before? Looked like it.

I don't really mind Vukona, and you gotta respect his longevity in the league and in international play, but he does seem to throw in a fair few cheap shots for someone with an 'honest tough guy' reputation.

Mitchell getting his jam on

United really lucked out getting Ware. He's the cog driving this new United group.

I am looking forward to when the Breakers are down by 30 points and they start INTENTIONALLY fouling with 1 minute left.

Looking forward to that.

#onlyinthenbl

Perf and Un Zud holding up the table

Well done league for dismantling the status quo

36 fouls in 30 minutes

And people wonder why the ratings are abysmal

Why is DD'S son on the bench? He's not on the coaching staff is he?

Refs SOOO HAPPY

COCAINE, PROSTITUTES, HAPPY HOME CROWD...FREE CASH FROM UNITED BETS..

Everyone is happy

There we go...refs in celebration mode

Fouls galore, high scoring, United winning, ,they will get laid by some United fans, collect there United bets, purchase some cocaine..

Refs happy, NBL owner happy.

Ware from the carpark

Dont stress United fans....there is NO CHANCE the referees let you lose..

NO CHANCE.

You think they will let the Breakers?

LOL

They have money to collect on NBL bets