Hoops

NBL Top 4 Settled

NZ would have to go 3-11 to miss the playoffs. Can't see that happening.

Of the teams likely to make playoffs, Perth and New Zealand are most likely, but I wouldn't lock the Beeakers in. I'd be gobsmacked if Perth don't make it.

MU really should get in, and if they don't, heads must roll.

There are really three spots up for grabs between NZ, MU, Adelaide, Cairns and Illawarra. I don't think Brisbane have the horses. Sydney are currently battling for relevance.

Without looking at the remaining schedule; NZ should still go well because they are a difficult team to beat at home.

Perth as always are going to be extremely difficult to beat. If they finish top of the ladder, there's no way they lose the title. Teams struggle to win even one game at Perth in finals.

The first 2 out 3 games are in Perth's building too; so assuming both teams hold their own courts, you need to win at home then win at Perth in the final two to get the chip. Very difficult.

"Who were resting players in at least of one those games...so Cairns wouldn't have been there if the Sixers played properly.

No Randle played both, just less.

It was generally understood that the Sixers weren't throwing the game just not trying to win as hard as before.

"By my estimation Illawarra were the 4th or 5th best team last season and Perth got to play them in the GF so yes, Perth got a bit lucky"

Perth also snuck into the playoffs thanks to a soft call on Gliddon fouling Cotton in the last second of CRN @ PER.

There is an element of luck but also an element of their grit.

They seldom win in Cairns, somehow thrashed them despite Cairns being the best in-form team at the time (Cairns had a few wins on the trot including 2 wins against league leading 6'ers).

Also the Hawks didn't just lay down during the GF, in Games 1 and 2 they were in the lead for most of the game. In game 3 even though they started 0-12, they stayed in touch and even catch up to within 3 in Q4.

Same with United IF Goulding starts playing more consistently like he has over the past 5 years.

Adelaide could give Perth a quality series. We've seen them beat Perth last season

If Childress starts rolling like Moore has been all year, suddenly they're flush with weapons. Adelaide has firepower off the bench and are starting to show they can rain points for 40 minutes straight. That makes them a dangerous proposition

They gave Perth a competitive game on Friday and that was in Perth without their MVP.

Other than Sobey, Goulding and Ware, the other guy who showed signs of ominous form on the weekend is Childress. If him and Sobey start rolling then Adelaide will suddenly become very tough to beat. They have the ability to find the next level as a team

By my estimation Illawarra were the 4th or 5th best team last season and Perth got to play them in the GF so yes, Perth got a bit lucky

United and Perth both deserved to make playoffs but there was only room for one after their poor starts. Adelaide could've also given Perth a good series

I reckon we'll see a better playoffs this year. Hopefully the best teams are all fit and firing at the same time

Perth were also only a handful of games off of first at the time. The league was so close that being last didn't really mean anything.

Don't forget Cottons first game last season was also the first game back for Dammo after a long time off from ijury.

It's too early to count out anyone. Perth were dead last at Christmas 2016 and snuck into the playoffs. However unlikely, Sydney are still a chance to make the playoffs.

Perth did have a lucky ride


They got of the Bongs and found a great point guard

LV, the three teams below Adelaide had some luck go their way in th final weeks of last season. The two teams who missed out had the opposite. At the end of the day, Perth needed to win their final game against Melbourne and they did.

Perth also beat Cairns in straight sets without homie court advantage. You seem to be implying Perth got a lucky ride.

Last year Adelaide or United could've given Perth a better series than Illawarra did, but through a dose of luck Perth managed to avoid both of them in the big dance

Adelaide ran into their bogey team in the semis.

United were a long way behind the 8 ball when Casper arrived and Perth were able to beat them 4 times by a combined total of about 10 points to keep them out of the playoffs

Sydney (and I suspect Gaze) are toast.
I haven't looked at their schedule, but I think Brissy might be able to keep things interesting if they start to gel.
And I think Cairns are definitely still in with a show, simply by dint of Melbourne's inconsistency and Joey's Brain Farts.

Probably way too early to say this but I'm thinking that even though Perth is looking head and shoulders above right now, I think it's unlikely they'll finish there like they did last season. Last season had a few unlikely factors all conspiring together.

I agree NZ might go off the boil but with such a head start they could fall away but still end up 15-13 or something. That's about where I elect expect them to finish.

Matchups looming as crucial as always. At this stage for example United would be hoping to play Adelaide but avoid Perth at all costs. Dream run for them would be Breakers in 4th upsetting Perth in 1st.

I hope that what Ware, Goulding and Sobey produced thos weekend is a sign of things to come. If it was then those teams could really challenge Perth and give them a tough 4 or 5 game series. NZ I think we've seen enough to suggest they could too, but their challenge is completely different- maintaining their entire team's form for another half a season plus playoffs. Or losing and re discovering it.

LV, I suspect you might be right.

Overall quality of the league (from a spectator perspective, rather than talent on the floor) feels down a notch this year, with marquee guys across multiple teams just not performing at the same level as last year on a consistent basis - Sobey, CG43, Ware, Cotton, etc.

Perth feels like the only semi-consistent team and with the homecourt advantage should be a lock for the finals, but it's a crapshoot for the other team - NZ and Adelaide are Jekyll/Hyde, and Melb is more Hyde than Jekyll.

Adelaide has 2 tough road games in their next 2, if they fell to 7-8 they could drop out, so I don't really think the top 4 is necessarily settled in that it won't change, but I'm fairly confident in predicting what the final 4 will be.

We'll see if my prediction ever sees daylight or whether it gets buried ;-)

Although having said that, Cairns fixture means that game or two that they miss by might not happen til the last round when they meet Perth twice.

What would be really interesting would be if Perth was 2 games clear heading into the last week. They'd get to potentially pick their opponent. I believe that's happened before?
(with some teams). Let's hope the comp keeps Perth honest and we have both Perth AND Cairns battling for positions in those games.

Can anyone comment on this, I thought it was all sorted out?