Hoops

NBL GF Series MVP - Predictions

Well I doubt DJ can win it now.... Lemanis is on the panel deciding the MVP

^^^
Exactly what I thought, he’s been the best so far.

Well I doubt DJ can win it now.... Lemanis is on the panel deciding the MVP

Goulding? Really? He's taken shots away from better shooters throughout the series (he's 12/40 from 3 pt range). Apart from a streak of 3 or 4 shots in quarter 3 of game 1 (which got Melbourne back on equal footing in that game), he's had little influence on game results. Prather also seems to have been more prominent when Melbourne have lost. To me, Ware has had the most impact on Melbourne winning or losing in the games so far.

With Adelaide I struggle to pick a single MVP. I like the way Creek just goes about it and keeps coming up with key plays throughout the game - a drive, a block, a rebound, a defensive stop. He seems to set the tone for the team. Would love to see a Deng 3-pointer on the buzzer to win the series. That'd get him the MVP.

William Hill's odds:

Ware $3
Prather $4
Creek $6
DJ/Goulding $7
Shorter/Moore $17
Deng/Wesley $26
Boone/Sobey $34

Boone would've slipped dramatically from before the series!

Ignoring stats, I think Wesley and Creek have been absolutely key for their teams. Wesley's blocks have been almost a story in themselves.

Jack toft
You missed Moller who is 10 and 10, certainly not mvp but very reasonable for the amount of time played. Anderson as you point out also excellent in his limited time as well.

It should be Johnson if Adelaide win and probably if they loose a close one and he plays well.

I think it is still very open and really will come down to Game 5 performance. The MVP is not necessarily the highest scorer, but the one who has turned the game.

Ware is the obvious choice for United fans to get excited about. Apart from that, the quality drops away when they are put under pressure.

For the Sixers, the field is a little more open.

However, over the series so far, looking at the Index points and the +/-

Melbourne:
Prather: 69 Index, -13
Goulding: 57, -3
Wesley: 52, -22
Boone: 46, -23
Ware: 41, +2
Barlow: 40, +8
Andersen: 35, +36
Hooley: 13, -12
Majok: 10, -5
Adnam: 7, -10
SmithMilner: 5, -18

Based on that, Prather would be the hot favourite, but Andersen is actually pretty impressive.

Sixers:
Creek: 74, 0
Johnson: 67, +49
Deng: 67, +21
Shorter: 59, +25
Moore: 53, -15
Sobey: 47, -10
Childress: 24, +17
Drmic: 23, -24
Hodgson: 12, -14
Doyle: 1, +4
Teys: 0,-3
Larkins: 0,0

Based on that, I would say Creek is currently leading all players, BUT, the fact that Johnson is +49 on his +/- shows how important his performances have been.

My Top 5:
Johnson
Creek
Prather
Shorter
Goulding

Honorable mentions: Deng, Andersen

Over the four games played so far the plus / minus are

Johnston +45
Creek 0
Deng. +21
Shorter. +25
Moore. -15

Ware. +2
Prather. -13
Barlow. +8
Goulding. -3

Fair to say if Adelaide win it should be Johnston, even if they get beat you he would have to be considered.
Moller is actually Melbourne best at +10.

No according to LV it's only judged on who performs in Melbourne wins.

Isn't it judged on a vote after each game? Probably not too hard to go back and do a quick 3-2-1 (or 5-4-3-2-1, what ever it is) for each game to get a rough idea who is near the top

Plus Casper gets extra points for playing the entire series- since 6 minutes in- at well under 100% fitness.

Both teams have such even and deep rosters that there really hasn't been one outstanding player this series.
If they judge it on who has been best in their team's wins, Ware has to win it. But he's gone completely missing in both of the losses.
I think it will come down to who of Prather, DJ, Creek and Ware wins the game for their team in Game 5.
Wouldn't be against Ramone Moore winning it, to be honest. He's been exactly what we've needed in big moments this series.

Did Barlow injure Ware during a gym session?

I wouldn't see Barlow or Deng as a shock

I think any injury Ware has is not as severe as Childress's injury!!

Would be awesome to get a shock winner like Barlow or Deng,

The last few grand final series has been decided in the decider, I think the last time we had a clear cut winner before the last game was Cedric Jackson

Goulding has played better than Prather in the series so far, even today Goulding finished on -10 in 36 minutes and Prather-13 in 32 minutes. Prather has had more turnovers as well.
Johnston has been the best if Adelaide win it.

Well the diff bw Caspers efforts in win vs loss games all season has shown his value. Grand Final has been same same

Don't think I saw any other key players getting subbed off late in games to pop some pills before re entering?

Shorter's outplayed Ware this series and DJ probably deserves it for Adelaide and Prather for Melbourne.

No. It should simply be decided by which player is the most valuable. Most players will be carrying at least some niggles by this stage of the season.

Casper's not only dealing with a dodgy hip but very questionable refereeing that limited his playing time in Adelaide.

5 50/50 calls for fouls last week. And today subbed off after getting his second foul- both barely made contact with his opponent

The MVP should primarily be decided on who played better in the wins

Plus Casper gets extra points for playing the entire series- since 6 minutes in- at well under 100% fitness.

Shorter's stats for those playing at home...

14pts, 6rbs, 2.5asts, 2stls, 1to, +25 +/-
22/54 fgs (41%), 4/11 3pts (36%), 7/11 ft's

Stats show that he's been more consistent and more value overall when on the floor compared to Ware across the four games.

LV and Hogwash - Ware? Unless he has a massive game and carries them over the line, he's been very ordinary in their two away losses as opposed to Prather's consistency across each game, keeping MU ahead or giving them a bite in games 2 & 4.

Ware's stats:
16pts, 2asts, 2rbs, 0.5stls, 3to's, +2 +/-
23/52 fgs (44%), 8/21 3pts (38%)

Assuming Prather has a "quiet" game, then I think Ware is going to have to score 30 and lead MU from go to wo to take out MVP. Otherwise, if Prather has a another really strong, consistent 20+ pt game, sI till think he would be favourite if MU win.

If 36ers win and Johnson has around 20pts again, think he'll claim it...

Casper Ware.

When he fires, United usually wins.

When he struggles, United usually loses.

That trend has continued through the Grand Final. He's got a week to get his body right, and I'll back him in to put in another big performance on his home court.

With the chris Paul trade the clippers obviously get a whole lot better, on the other hand the lakers have gone backwards so far this offseason. my money is on th clippers to have a better record than the lakers.