Hoops

32 Seasons - End of an Era

Barlow's on court complaining would be a good match for gleeson's off court complaining

Wildcats should look at singing David Barlow. Great aussie who can replace wagstaff or hire.

PeterJohn

Do you run the sort of probability software that bookmakers use?

I ask because you could try to factor in more recent form somehow. Maybe work out what sort of % improvement or slide for each team. Then you’d have a good basis to set odds.

Everyone is talking as if Casper's layup gifted Perth the win.

But

1. Perth led for 98% of the game, and it was only two quick threes by Barlow that had put United in a position where they could steal it.

2. If Casper had hit the layup Perth would've had 6 seconds to score for the win. How many game winners has Cotton hit over the past couple of seasons? Plenty.

Perth was so dominant over the first third of the season that they still have the best % of any team. And easily.

Writing them off was very premature

Any of the top 5 could finish on top, and any of them could miss the top 4.

Illawarra and NZ (6th and 7th) highly unlikely but still possible.

How many times would we have been able to say that with only a month to go in the regular season?

Perth are safe

"I'm not sure a formula that gives five teams a 50%+ chance of making the finals is all that reliable TBH."

someone tell this person how probabilities work

Plus Perth are still strong at home

I'm not sure a formula that gives five teams a 50%+ chance of making the finals is all that reliable TBH.

I think we can do it, but its going to be a close run thing.
Hey at least it gives us something to aspire to. If we extend the streak we're going to party like its 1989.

When this was posted Perth hadn't beaten anyone other than Cairns since November, and lost a home game to Cairns as well. They looked incapable of winning a game.

They still do, really. Gave up a decent lead with a couple of minutes to go and gave Melbourne a wife open layup to win it. They got very lucky.

There are 1 1/2 games between first and fifth, with every team with at least six games to play. It is waaay too early to write any team in, or any team off. Illawarra are still in the hunt too, although they would have to excel from here.

Plus Perth are still strong at home, with more games out west than not.

It’s still too soon to write Perth off. They began the season strong, and thus have put themselves in a good position despite their recent struggles. They are still holding onto a playoff spot, and they still control their own destiny (especially with games coming up against Adelaide who are probably the biggest threat to step up into the 4).

Bit premature to write them off.

Perth will win today

I’m a 36ers fan so naturally loathe the Wildcats. Gotta respect their whole organisation though.
Don’t write them off!!
Remember a few years back, they needed to win and needed another team to lose just to make the playoffs.

THEN THEY GOT IN AND WON THE TITLE!!!

Even if you only count appearances in the top six, they still make the playoffs 29 out of those 32 years. And one of the three years they finished seventh, they demolished Brisbane and Wollongong to get to the semi finals.

But yeah, they were tremendously lucky with the timing of playoff expansion. Others have said that those easy playoff berths were available to everyone in the league at that time, and none of those other teams have put together such a streak, but that overlooks the circumstances. There's always going to be a drop-off as the old guard retires and new blood is brought in - much like is happening now - and making the playoffs through that transition period is necessary to build such a lengthy streak. In Perth's case, the transition period that came with the retirements of Grace, Fisher, and Vlahov, and the departure of Harvey and Black, coincided with an era in which 2/3 of the league got to see action in the post-season. So they were able to ride out that transition period while still scraping into the playoffs, before the league dropped to eight teams and the new Martin/Redhage/Lisch core was ready to go.

That expansion didn't benefit teams like Sydney, Brisbane, or Melbourne, as they were on the top of the league at that time.