Hoops

Working out the World Cup draw

Perhaps this thread is more relevant for this. The classification round is under way and this has implications for Olympic qualifications. It also matters for world ranking points.

Tonight China defeated Korea in a close finish. China with their 2nd win, but I believe this still isn't a guarantee to get that highest World Cup placing in Asia.

The final world cup ranking depends on their *placing* within each group of the classification round, not necessarily wins. Currently Iran and China are both placed 2nd in their respective groups. I can't find any clear information about how they are ranked from there, but I assume it is based on wins then points differential.

China will play Nigeria next. Iran will play Philippines.

So if Iran beat the Philippines as expected, and China loses to Nigeria, they will both finish second in their group and Iran could get that automatic Olympics birth from points differential. Although knowing FIBA, they might obscure the final placings system to somehow let China into the Olympics anyway.

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Then there is New Zealand's placing. It appears FIBA is using a very complicated world ranking system now. It seems to be unlike the previous system which awarded world rankings points depending on final placing in the tournament. Now every game played can get world rankings points. The number of world rankings points earned depends on the ranking of the opponent, the winning (and losing) margin, whether it is home/away/neutral, and which tournament it is. World rankings really matters because it affects which pot teams are placed in for subsequent World Cups. It's better to be placed in a higher ranked pot before the draw. That's why China's path was so easy, because it automatically received the highest seed.

It is a very complicated ranking system...

http://www.fiba.basketball/documents/rankingmen/howitworks

... but world cup results are weighted very highly (2.5 times weighting compared with 0.4 times weighting in Asia qualifiers). Notice also that winning/losing margin matters, not just the win. Also the ranking of the opponent matters. So these final two games remain important to New Zealand for their world ranking.

Would you believe that New Zealand are current ranked 38?

New Zealand will play Japan and Turkey in their final two games. Win both and they finish 17-21 in the World Cup. Beat Japan and lose to Turkey, they should finish 2nd in their group which equates to a 22-25 World Cup placing. I'd argue that it's the world rankings points for each individual game that matters more than their final placing in the World Cup.

"Finish 2nd in Group L and we face USA."

If they finish first in Group K. No guarantee of that just yet.

We are in Group L, USA in Group K.

Finish 2nd in Group L and we face USA.

Finish 1st then either Brazil/Greece/Czech Republic

"To win you must win" - Jack Bendat

Okay we need to win atleast 2 of our next 3
Then win a game
Then 1 of our last 2.

To medal

We need to win our next 4 games and atleast 1 of our last 2

Its simple, same as any tournament play, Survive and Advance, just keep winning.

Bear thinks if we think too far ahead we are over thinking it!

Unless there has been a massive shift by FIBA for this tournament, the points differential is only for games between the teams in a tie. Only if that is equal can points differential in other games come into play.

So if we lose to either France or Lithuania, we need it to be a close loss in case we end up in a three-way tie for two spots.

If we finish top of group L, then we will play Turkey or Brazil in the QF.
If we finish 2nd, we will almost certainly face USA.

We play 5 games.
Obviously, if we win all 5, then we finish 1st.
Drop one, and depending on other results we could end up in a multiway tie

It will all become clearer tomorrow as the top 2 teams in each sub-group are playing off. So either us or the Lithos, and presumably France, will go into the 2nd round with a one game break.

It's a shit draw, and why I have said from the start that we're unlikely to make it past the QFs.
Nothing I have seen so far, in the bumbling and stumbling, makes me think we can get through undefeated. Which means at best facing USA in the QF.

I broke it down here:

Upcoming Lithuania game could decide Boomers' fate at FIBA World Cup