Hoops

Melo Trimble

Hoopie has got it, understands it. You need these players or all goes to shit. Problem with Melbourne is there studs are not performing yet, still might happen. They were stupid to let Moller go.

Ranking him as a stud who’s there to score or scare the opponents, not in my top 20.

But ranking him as a player who’s there as a glue guy doing the hard work to let the studs concentrate on being the studs, I’d put him and Moller in my top 20.

Anyone reading this from the old Ozhoops days world find this conversation incredibly ironic

I used to cop it for using stats to make my points in every single post

(Before the days of advanced stats)

Would anyone in this thread put McCarron in their top 10 NBL players?

Top 15?

https://spatialjam.com/onoff

I haven't seen these stats before (and not 100% sure exactly what they mean) but at first glance- McCarron net rating 33.8, next best Long at 10.8.

Prather -9.6!

Where are you getting the raw numbers from Paul, in terms of exact points?

Can't you read, paul? he said it's a fact!

Melbourne are +113 with McCarron on court and -81 with him off. Next best is +59. I'm not sure that McCarron is the issue here.

Not certain Mitch wants it easy but he certainly got the big pay packet.

Mitch McCarron is the future Todd Blanchfield.

Stand in the corner for a few seasons with MU and completely forget how to play basketball and forego all the promise he once had because he wanted it easy.

Bogut can’t make a pass while weaving through traffic at speed like D-Mac could. Or Machado.

But that’s because Bogut can’t weave through traffic at speed.

Bogut is a good passer anywhere on the court, I’ve seen him chuck full court passes to players running down wings or under bucket for easy scores.

McCarron is an elite rebounder for a little guy.

He's not an elite rebounder per se. If you put him next to Bogut or Long or Boone or Majok Majok, and he has to compete against them for a rebound, then no, he's not an elite rebounder.

But everything is context dependent. If you're comparing McCarron to Chris Goulding or Terrico White or Todd Blanchfield- ie: people we might compare him to or he competes with for court time - then McCarron is an elite rebounder.

It's always relative to your position - Bogut is one of the best passers *For a big man*.

Bogut isn't in D-Mac or Machado's league, of course

Much like McCarron is an elite rebounder *For someone who's 189cm*

As in, I can name 20 current NBL players I'd choose before McCarron if I was picking a team for next season.

Rjd one of my other comments was that McCarron isn't elite at anything except rebounding

Bogut is elite at

- rebounding
- passing
- rim protection

I'm not aiming to denigrate McCarron, was just explaining why I don't rate him a star in this league. Yet ppl often talk like he is.

"Is there a +/- differential for when you're on or off the court?"

Yes, Jordan McCallum provides this here:
https://jordanmcnbl.com/2019-20-nbl-plus-minus/

Per 36 figures are used there for ON-OFF +/- differences to account for differences between playing time on and off.

LV, your same arguments about McCarron can be applied to last year's MVP!

"If he was on a team with other guys who brought similar skills, then his skillset wouldn't be as valuable within his team's mix.

[Bogut] has useful skills- hence why I said he'd start on most, if not all, teams.

But on the other hand, you need a lot more than what [Bogut] brings, if you want to win basketball games. You need playmakers. You need scoring.

I wonder what [Bogut]'s top score is- after [X] seasons of pro basketball...?

I'd be surprised if he's even cracked 20 on more than a handful of occasions. And if so, then that's telling you something."

Goulding to Sydney is my tip.

McCarron could be playing the 1 for United if they had signed a play making 3 like Hopson or Patterson instead of Trimble.

Goulding started in Launceston......bring the flopper to Tassie

He doesn't it's just someone on his behalf trying to care United into giving him what he wants.

Could've used a better scare tactic than Cairns though they can't afford CG43 lol

Why would Goulding want to go to Brisbane when they have Sobey, Gliddon and Cadee?

I thought the last 3 or 4 weeks he wasn't driving and using his speed but the NZ game he seemed to be moving better. Maybe he was carrying an injury? Regardless I do question his hunger.. maybe he has a super easy going personality but when Hopsen claps in his face he looked like a stunned mullet. Vickerman yells at him same reaction?

“Finn Delany would eat him”

Never truer words spoken!

Favorites is entirely subjective concept

If you're asking whether I get it right more often than not,my Sports betting accounts would suggest that I do.

(Betting in tiny amounts just for fun. But definitely ahead. Gamble responsibly!)

Zodiac, I blame Vickerman moreso than Crivelli. He'd have the final say.

Prather was coming off an injury. If he passed the medical, what's the issue? Plenty of players have season long injuries- and get signed. Look at Durant, Thompson for example. It's actually not that common for a further string of injuries to follow like this. It does happen, but it's not the norm.

[So LV has been quoting plus/minus statistics for all this time]

I have?

FYI I don't read Spatial Jam or any analytics. The eye test does just fine.

To the extent I have ever mentioned it in the past as far as McCarron goes after hearing it spoken about, the gist is still United does better when he's on court relative to when he's not.

So LV has been quoting plus/minus statistics for all this time and didn't know plus/minus counter stops when you are off the court.

OMFG.

McCarron got killed in last season GF series. He’s a combo guard size but does not quite have that skill set. Good 3 get him because of his size. Didn’t Melbourne promise him to play point guard when they chased him with a bucket money from Lithuania.
To compare him to Kay is not right either, total different positions and Kay is a winner.

LV, you should be pointing the bone at Crivelli.

Everyone knew Trimble was padding his stats on a shithouse Cairns team last season and was young and inexperienced only one year removed from college. That's a big risk going from driving a Datsun 180b to being given the keys to a Porsche.

Giving a 2 year deal to Prather who did his knee last season and missed all of that season due to injury was always something that could potentially blow up in his face. The two year deal meant he couldn't be cut without being paid out in full for the rest of the season.

Bang!

I'm not scapegoating McCarron at all. I mostly blame Trimble for the team's current predicament.

At 10-7, they were travelling OK considering the injuries. Trimble has completely lost it over the past few games.

LV I think you're selling Mitch McCarron more than a bit short. He's better than just an NBL starter level player he would be at worst the third option on pretty much every other team in the league. Anthony Drmic is an NBL starter level player but McCarron is a much better player than him he's jsut outside the Top 10 in the league in rebounds despite only being 6'2".

United poached him from Cairns to essentially be a 'glue guy' who they can throw the rock to if all other options dry up who in the meantime plays good defence and does all the other things well especially being an exceptional rebounder for his size. Offensively he would be fourth in line behind Long, Goulding, Trimble and Prather.

McCarron's stats this season on a disjointed United team:

9.8p @ 47.5% (38.5% 3p), 84.6% FT, 6.7r, 3.1a, 1.1s

McCarron's stats last season on a GF team:

11.6p @ 48.5% (38.4% 3p), 86% FT, 5.1r, 2.8a, 1.1s

The Prather gamble is the biggest reason for United's disastrous season followed by the poaching of an empty stat padder in Trimble and the poaching of the big man equivalent in Long.

OK- thanks Koberulz

[Yes, that he doesn't touch the ball enough.]

So none of his coaches in 6 professional seasons have seen what you can- that McCarron is a gun scorer?

So if the team does just as well when McCarron's off the court as it does when he's on- then his plus/minus wouldn't be as good...no?

[That....isn't how plus/minus works.]

It's not?

So if the team does just as well when McCarron's off the court as it does when he's on- then his plus/minus wouldn't be as good...no?

If he was on a team with other guys who brought similar skills, then his skillset wouldn't be as valuable within his team's mix.

McCarron has useful skills- hence why I said he'd start on most, if not all, teams.

But on the other hand, you need a lot more than what McCarron brings, if you want to win basketball games. You need playmakers. You need scoring.

I wonder what McCarron's top score is- after 6 seasons of pro basketball (4 seasons NBL, 1 season Slovenia, 1 season 2nd div Spain?) ?

I'd be surprised if he's even cracked 20 on more than a handful of occasions. And if so, then that's telling you something.

In the team he was stuck with last season, Trimble did what was asked. He tried to carry the team and scored as much as he could. Some might call that "hero ball".
For MU he's had to change his game radically, become more of a General, and a distributor, whilst still scoring. It's been a tough transition, especially with the lack of consistency around him.
Keep in mind that he's relatively young and inexperienced.

There are coaches that do well getting below average teams to punch above their weight, and then there are those that do well getting talented teams to excel. It could be Vickerman is the latter?

[In a league with 70 odd players getting significant players]

*minutes

[What's the opposite of advanced stats?]

McCarron is a good fit - he does things that others on United don't do.

So it's not surprising the team does so much better when he's on court.

Start him alongside Damien Martin for the Wildcats, and his plus minus wouldn't be as good- because when McCarron gets subbed off, Martin is still there doing the same things he's good at- hustling at both ends, rebounding, making the unselfish passes, doing the "one percenters"

Interestingly, McCarron doesn't share your love for the analytics:

"Whether I'm bottom or top [in analytics], it doesn't matter to me."

"I see them pop up on Twitter sometimes but I don't know what they mean either"

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/basketball/mccarron-knows-his-analytics-look-good-but-wants-more-efficiency-20191128-p53f40.html

I'm just saying I don't view him as a top 20 player in the NBL.

I'd rank him somewhere between 20 and 30.

In a league with 70 odd players getting significant players, that makes him better than average. But not a "star" unless that term is meaningless.

Any team would be happy to start McCarron I would have thought. So what if he's not "elite" at anything or a one-on-one creator. Neither is Nick Kay but he was still an integral part of a championship team. Mitch is versatile, plays with heart - at both ends of the floor, is unselfish, will burn you if you don't respect his scoring ability, one of the better rebounding 3s in the league, and is not the first place I'd be looking when searching for why United's results have failed to match their budget. Not everyone on the floor needs to be a one-on-one creator for an offence to be functional. It helps if the guys who are capable finishers rather than creators actually get opportunities generated for them though.

Are you forgetting one of those ball hungry imports only played 7 games, at 18 minutes a game? If McCarron's good enough to be the focal point, then he should be doing it more when Trimble, CG or Long are off court

McCarron is often the 2nd or 3rd option of the players who are on court at the time.

Maybe you're right- they should run more plays for him. But if he was a good scorer or creator, he'd be doing better than 9ppg and 3apg in 33 odd minutes a game.

United only has one player who I’d call elite. Only one top 10 player in this comp. Shaun Long. Despite his weaknesses, he’s a big man who can score and rebound with the best of them. That makes him very valuable in the NBL.

Trimble is a high scoring guard in a league full of high scoring guards- eg: Roberson, Randle, Casper, Cotton, Hopson. But unlike the best of them, he doesn’t have any more valuable strings to his bow (eg: Casper- elite defender. Proven winner. Cotton – clutch. Proven winner. Hopson – clutch. Proving himself as a winner). Unlike those guys, Trimble has obvious weaknesses. A good NBL player. Top 20. Work to do before being in the conversation with the elite.

Mitch McCarron. Good defender. Good rebounder. Works hard. Team first player. Has good plus/minus stats.

But let’s be clear- he’s a role player, not a go-to man. He’ll never be the first option, 2nd option, even 3rd option on offense for a successful NBL team. He’ll always be someone who feeds off others, not someone who has plays run for them. He’s not even a particularly adept creator. The guy plays 35 odd minutes most games, and he’s averaging 9 points and 3 assists!

Is McCarron even elite at anything? Perhaps rebounding- very good rebounder for his size, and even amongst small forwards.

McCarron would be a starter on most, if not all NBL teams. But he’s not a star in this league. Not even in the discussion for all NBL teams. Yet people seem to talk about him like he’s an absolute gun. It’s true that stats suggest he’s uniquely valuable to United, but that’s mostly due to fit. Most successful teams have one guy like Mitch McCarron, but he’s not in the top 20 players I’d select from this year’s crop of NBL players, if I was putting together a new team for next season.

McCarron is good at multiple things and a team first player. Strong work ethic. A starter but not a star.

McCarron still not turning his plus, minus into wins though. He plays a lot minutes as well. Good player but not great.

"McCarron - Overrated and can play 20 mints and not registered a stat or effect the game. (Even forget he is out there sometimes!" - Reality

Yet McCarron leads the league in on-off per 36 minutes. His team has the worst per 36 when he is off, at -16.9. That's a bigger negative than any player on the worst team in the league. You don't think that United might be heavily reliant on McCarron? Without McCarron, United is possibly the worst team in the league going by +/-s. You might not notice it on the stats sheet, but if you observed games you might see why McCarron is so valuable for United.

Trimble on a trajectory that could see him at Illawarra next.

It should be a warning to all recruiters don’t get fooled by stats. Neither play defence anywhere near the required level. Long nba bound in homicide opinion, he can only beat up smaller opponents and then only if they not tough. Finn Delany would eat him.

Re: Trimble not getting to the foul line.

The refs (& defenders) now have his drive figured out. HE initiates contact on lay ups & flails, akin to the master Cadee, with the only dif now being Cadee STILL gets those calls, Trimble less & less of them.

[Purely a confidence issue?]

As in, could there be an injury he's carrying? Doesn't look like it, but it's hard to tell.

It's playoff time!

This weeks game decides your fate for next season (if you are in the top 4)

We are still waiting on last weeks results and in turn, this weeks draw.

Will get them to you asap.