Hoops

Melbourne United can still do it

Door is open for a Bradbury title.

Bogut might be more banged up than we realise.

Martin has a semi major injury at least every other year. Maybe this year he has a second.

Although looking back at the match report and the author is going off of pure points margin as 23pts is the magic number which equates to MEL +64 and NZB +65 so they may be right?

Also adding "on percentage" in brackets to Vickerman's quote adds even more confusion as coach didn't verbalise the exact method of calculation when stating "about 20 points up" yet the author has used incorrect terminology in trying to clarify what was being referenced. Bizarre. NBL never change.

My bad, I get the example now, it surely would be based on points percentage not margin you would think as historically it was always the latter before the change to mini-league head-to-head.

Nevertheless NBL are doing a poor job of communicating the scenarios at play.

The following was in the United-Taipans match report to add to the confusion:

The only way Melbourne can win on Sunday and still miss the finals is if the Breakers beat the Phoenix on Friday night in Christchurch by 23 more points than United wins by.

"We are close, about 20 points up [on percentage] but I can certainly see New Zealand putting a possible margin like that up if they play the way they have been playing lately," Melbourne coach Dean Vickerman said.

Is it just about margin, though, or is it actually percentage? If the latter, the same margin can be worth a different amount, ie a 10-5 win is 200% but a 90-85 win is only 106%.

Which makes the complaints about the Illawarra game on NZ's behalf odd, because a 65-52 win got them 125% but a 99-86 win would only have got them 1.15%, so the longer the game went the more they would have had to increase the margin for the same percentage benefit.

Similarly, if it's overall margin a win increases it, no matter the margin. If it's percentage, a win by less than your average winning margin will actually decrease it.

For example Sydney's percentage is 106.44, with their points averages being 94 for and 89 against. If they beat Illawarra 91-90, their percentage drops to 106.25.

Melbourne, NZ and Brisbane are all so close to 100% there's not that much wiggle room for percentage-decreasing wins, but it can happen.

In Luuuc's example, the 100-75 win would give NZ a percentage of 102.52, while a 95-90 Melbourne win leaves them on a percentage of 102.50, and NZ goes through.

However, quite a few people are only quoting margins on Twitter, and if that is indeed the tiebreaker a) it unfairly punishes slower-paced teams and b) all this math becomes irrelevant.

That example would give MEL +64 and NZB +62? Add another 3pts to NZB's score and they go through.

What happens if points differential between the two teams is tied? Head to head count-back?

United playing last and knowing the permutations is a huge advantage. What a luxurious run home they have this round - even though their game on Sunday is away. Amazing.

The equation for United is this: win both remaining games, and they're in

The equation for United is this: win both remaining games, and they're in

So did I.

I told you they could still do it

They are done!
No team camaraderie.Just money grabbers.

Depends which version of them turns up... They're certainly capable, but as said above, the body language is pretty awful at times...

On a related note, what are the contract situations like for the players? Assume the imports are all on 1yr deals with options at the most? Anyone decent playing for a job next season?

United have enough offensive talent on paper to do it, but at the game on Sunday the chemistry issues were pretty apparent from where I was seeing, on the court and on the sidelines. Nothing builds chemistry quite like winning so a big win tomorrow night and possibly they turn things around, but I think a loss in Perth and these guys are done, regardless of what the math says.

There's so many ways this could go, with Brisbane, United and Cairns all still to play each other.

But, essentially if United loses either of the next two, it becomes extremely difficult. They'd need to win their last three, and hope other results go their way.

I've got a gut feeling they won't win tonight, but maybe tomorrow night...

United destroyed Perth in Perth a month ago.

Form is fickle. Who knows?

The old cliche is relevant here. "One game at a time". Beat Perth and suddenly everything looks very different.

Hawks by 30

Sem have guys still hungry to prove themselves. Not flat at all.

I don't think SEM would be "flat" if they were playing MU for the last game of the year and had a chance to keep them out of the playoffs; and if they couldn't get up for that game then there's some serious issues.

It'd come down to winning all 3 against SEM, Brisbane and Cairns (given the surety in the Ill and Perth games) and I just don't think that's going to happen; too inconsistent for my liking.

They aren’t beating Perth or cairns. They’re flat they look depressed.

They’re done, their body language is terrible when they aren’t just cruising to victory.

That’s a no from me.

put a fork in em

The cattle is over hyped and not that good or in Pledger and Barlow is beyond the use by date though Barlow would still be a good 10/11 man. So if the hype comes true they will get there but I myself think they can’t.

Perth still has the best model, get good Australian core with good imports around them, Sydney and Brisbane have done it reasonably well and it looks like paying off. Melbourne seem to get imports first.

Yeah, they could, but the question is “should”?

Adelaide 36ers
Mitch Creek – Achilles – Season
Luke Schenscher – Soreness – Fitness test

Cairns Taipans
Kerry Williams – Ankle – Out 1-2 weeks

Melbourne Tigers
Owen Odigie – Broken Wrist – Out 2 weeks
Jonny Flynn – Plantar Fasciitis – Fitness test
Seth Scott – Back – Fitness test

New Zealand Breakers
Will Hudson – Knee – Out 3-4 weeks

Perth Wildcats
No injuries reported

Sydney Kings
Corin Henry – Wrist – Season
James Harvey – Wrist – Out 1-2 weeks
Ian Crosswhite – Ankle – Out TBC pending medical assessment

Townsville Crocodiles
Todd Blanchfield – Ankle – Fitness test

Wollongong Hawks
Lance Hurdle – Knee – Season
Rhys Martin – Knee – Season
Glen Saville – Knee - Season